Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Rule of Three....

I'm a terrible tweeter. I rarely can get my thoughts across in 140 characters, or 160 for that matter, if we're talking about texting. Knowing this is why I often put hand to keyboard(sounds weird, right?) and have to write down my thoughts about whatever it is that is on my mind. So obviously, when it came to watching the lottery last night, I had a flurry of thoughts, none of which would fit on twitter. So, instead, I'm logging about 3000 words of "What Will KOC Do" and mixing in my own opinion and "extensive analysis" regarding the upcoming draft and/or future of the Jazz.

Draft Pick #3

First things first. Kevin O'Connor sounded as excited as I, or any other Jazz fan have ever heard him sound. KOC's new role as almost sole constructor of the Jazz should either confirm or dissuade the notion that the man is a good GM. For years, Jerry and Kevin had to learn to work together, partially because Larry H. Miller made them, and partially because both men want to win so badly that they set aside ego, for the most part, and tried to work things out. Now that Jerry has exited, and Kevin has "his choice" in place as coach, he'll have to start this new chapter with a solid pick at number 3. Discussion has already risen to an audible roar to trade the third pick and #12 to Minnesota, either straight across for 2, add number 20, or to include another player in the deal, like CJ Miles or Raja Bell, and then draft Derrick Williams. I think this is a TERRIBLE idea. I know that the labor negotiations are coming up, and the lockout blah blah blah, but realistically, the NBA isn't in as bad of shape competition-wise as people might argue, even if the superstars do start joining forces en masse. I continually point to Oklahoma City as my example. The goal is to amass enough talent to possibly peak at the right time and win a championship. That happens either through free agency or draft, and with a little luck. Although I love Derrick Williams, I don't think he is a franchise-altering player worth giving up multiple picks for. Luck just might position you for him at three, if not, draft Brandon Knight, groom a PG for the future, with the option to either not re-sign Devin Harris at 9 mil plus or trade him for more draft picks, take Chris Singleton at the 12 spot and off you go.

Twelfth Man

Before I rampage here, notice I left out Enes Kanter. My hunch is that Kevin O'Connor saw enough out of him to know that he isn't a better player than either Knight or Williams when the Jazz worked him out earlier in the year, and credit O'Connor for having the foresight to get a look at the kid before all this "I won't work out against anyone" bull shiieerrr, um, garbage, started happening. I'd like to say that the Jazz will strike gold here, find some undiscovered gem and be lauded for their scouting prowess, but that's foolish. The best bet here is to take whatever need you have that wasn't filled earlier in the round. IF the Jazz get Derrick Williams, then the Jazz have to look at either, gulp, Jimmer Fredette or Alec Burks here. Right now, your logjam is at the four and five spots, and you need this season to figure out who is worth keeping next to Derrick Favors. More than likely the Jazz will end up taking Brandon Knight with the third pick, at which point you should look to draft either Burks or Chris Singleton, a defensive-minded wing with good length, athleticism and a decent shooting touch that would help bolster the two weakest areas of the team, shooting, and defense. (I'll also tell you that this spring has been wet, and Obama is president here, because apparently I'm making a list of the obvious.) Your hope is that whatever player gets drafted here becomes a contributor or, adds trade value later on down the road. Just to temper your expectations, the last five players taken at 12 were; 2010 Xavier Henry, 2009 Gerald Henderson, 2008 Jason Thompson, 2007 Thaddeus Young, 2006 Hilton Armstrong, and 2005 Yaroslav Korolev. (That last one was on the house, something young Yaro also hears a lot.)

Doors left open

There are other options in this draft. You could try and trade down (extremely unlikely) or you could look at a player like Kemba Walker at number three, or Jan Vesely, but if you are going to stick to Kevin O'Connor's rule of best player available, then those two automatically come below Knight or Williams. The 12th pick has some flexibility, you could take one of the Morris twins, Kawhi Leonard could possibly be on the board, and Jordan Hamilton from Texas most likely will still be available, but Hamilton lacks the defensive effort that Burks has shown from time to time, and Burks could be a better fit for a backcourt that includes Devin Harris and Gordon Hayward already. An attempt at drafting a big man, meaning Center, would be a drastic reach, as the only legit centers on the board would most likely be Donatas Montiejunas, a skilled European project, or Lucas Nogueira, a very raw, very Brazilian, center that despite being 7 feet tall, is only 18 years of age. Montiejunas would have to fall for the Jazz, and while Nogueira has some very interesting traits, it would be hard to justify taking him so early, especially seeing as how he has never played professional or collegiate basketball.

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